02/07/2026 12:00

Sala Descubre/Online Teams. Edificio 8E. Acceso J - 4ª Planta | Universitat Politècnica de València. 46022

Abstract: In this seminar, I examine the rapidly evolving role of critical minerals in shaping contemporary development, sustainability and geopolitical dynamics. While dominant policy and academic narratives emphasise the “twin transition”—the expansion of clean energy and digital technologies—as the primary driver of rising mineral demand, in our recent work we show that defence and security dynamics constitute an additional and underexamined force.

Building on my recent paper with Phil Johnstone, I show how military demand has long played a central role in shaping which minerals are considered critical, and how current processes of rearmament and geopolitical competition are reshaping patterns of extraction, investment and governance. I discuss how these dynamics have important implications for sustainable development, including increasing environmental pressures, reinforcing structural asymmetries in global value chains, and constraining opportunities for upgrading and diversification in producing countries.

I then extend this analysis to introduce my ongoing research agenda on the governance of end use in critical mineral value chains. The central question this work explores is whether, and how, the use of critical minerals can be governed under conditions of increasing competition between military, commercial and low-carbon applications. I argue that existing governance frameworks focus predominantly on how minerals are extracted and sourced, while paying limited attention to how they are ultimately used and allocated across competing applications, including energy, digital and defence systems. This omission limits our ability to assess trade-offs, prioritise uses, and govern resource allocation under conditions of increasing scarcity.

In this context, I outline current work exploring how end use can be made visible and governable, including through the development of new datasets, analytical approaches and tools such as reverse traceability systems. These approaches aim to track minerals from extraction through processing to final applications, opening new possibilities for understanding allocation dynamics, addressing global asymmetries, and informing more equitable and sustainable governance frameworks.

Bio: Anabel Marín (PhD, University of Sussex) is Research Fellow and Leader of the Business, Markets & State Cluster at the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), and a researcher at CONICET, Argentina (currently on leave).

Her work sits at the intersection of innovation studies, political economy and development studies, with a particular focus on critical minerals, sustainability transitions, green industrial policy and technological capabilities. Since joining IDS in 2021, she has developed a distinctive interdisciplinary research agenda examining how innovation, legitimacy, civic power, territorial dynamics and geopolitics shape mineral extraction and broader processes of green transformation.

Anabel has led and coordinated multi-country research programmes on critical minerals, innovation systems, industrial development and sustainability transitions, and has extensive experience securing and managing large international research grants and policy projects with organisations including IDRC, ESRC, IDB, ADB, ICC, ECLAC and UNCTAD. Her work combines academic research with policy engagement and cross-sector collaboration, involving partnerships with governments, international organisations, firms, financial institutions and civil society actors across Latin America, Africa and Asia.

She co-developed the first global geo-referenced dataset on conflict and cooperation in mining, contributing new evidence on the governance challenges and development implications of the energy transition. More broadly, her research has helped advance debates on resource governance, industrial upgrading, responsible business, technological autonomy, and the political and institutional conditions required for equitable and sustainable development pathways in mineral-rich economies.

Alongside her academic work, Anabel has substantial experience convening interdisciplinary and multi-stakeholder collaborations, translating research into policy-relevant outputs, and building international research and practitioner networks across regions and sectors.

Her work has been recognised with Argentina’s Premio RAÍCES for scientific cooperation and policy impact (2025).

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Microsoft Teams meeting

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Meeting ID: 350 102 875 244 48

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